A
Anonymous
July 18, 2026 ·
Here’s my prediction for the 2026 NA elections. Try yours:
ELECT.AM
2026 NA Elections — My prediction
The 54% stable-majority margin was applied · after the second round
Simulator · 19 political forces
Your National Assembly election result
Enter each force’s result — by percentage or vote count — and see what the NA would look like, the possible coalitions, and the second-round outcome.
1
Step
Vote input
Sum of all votes100.0%
1
Reformists Party party
%✗4%
2
Against Everyone Democratic Party party
%✗4%
3
Strong Armenia Alliance all.
%✓8%
4
Meritocratic Party of Armenia party
%✗4%
5
New Power Reformist Party party
%✗4%
6
Wings of Unity party
%✓4%
7
Prosperous Armenia party
%✓4%
8
National Democratic Alliance party
%✗4%
9
Kochari National Rebirth and Awakening party
%✗4%
10
Armenian National Congress party
%✗4%
11
Republic Party party
%✗4%
12
Christian-Democratic Party party
%✗4%
14
Democratic Consolidation party
%✗4%
15
Democracy Law Discipline party
%✓4%
16
Civil Contract party
%✓4%
17
Armenia Alliance all.
%✓8%
18
For the Republic Democracy Defenders Alliance party
%✗4%
19
Bright Armenia party
%✗4%
Inaccuracies count
%
2
step
NA composition from the preliminary mandate allocation
105 seats · cleared threshold: 85.6%
ForceVoteSeatsNA %
16CC40.3%5148.6%
CC40.3%5148.6%3SA16.5%2019.0%
SA16.5%2019.0%17AA11.3%1312.4%
AA11.3%1312.4%7PA8.4%109.5%
PA8.4%109.5%6WU4.9%65.7%
WU4.9%65.7%15DLD4.2%54.8%
DLD4.2%54.8%3
Step
Coalition or second round
If no single force wins a majority in the National Assembly elections, a coalition must be formed. The coalition forces must hold at least 52% of the mandates and agree on a prime-minister candidate. Under the Electoral Code, the right to form a coalition first goes to the force in 1st place. If it fails to form a coalition within the set 9-day period, that right passes to all the other forces. If they too fail within 5 days to form a coalition with 52% of the votes and a PM candidate, a second round of elections is held. Choose one of these scenarios.
Step 1
Led by the front-runner CC(31 options)
Step 2
The other forces, without the front-runner
The other forces together don't reach the 52% mandate threshold.
Step 3
Second round
After the second round
Stable majority
The force that wins the second round secures a stable majority (52%+ of mandates). Additional mandates are awarded if needed (art. 98, part 6).
Winning force
CC59 seats · 40.3% votes
Above threshold
6 forces
cleared the 4% / 8% / 10% threshold
Total
113
mandates in the NA
The result was produced by the second-round calculation.
4
Final NA composition after the second round
Government59 seats · 52.2%
- 16
CC5952.2%
Opposition54 seats · 47.8%
- 3
SA2017.7% - 17
AA1311.5% - 7
PA108.8% - 6
WU65.3% - 15
DLD54.4%
5
Final mandate allocation
Base, national-minority and additional seats
Clearing the threshold
The following forces cleared the 4/8/10% threshold of the sum of valid ballots cast and the number of inaccuracies:
- Civil Contract, Prosperous Armenia, Wings of Unity and Democracy Law Discipline parties: 4% threshold
- Strong Armenia Alliance and Armenia Alliance alliances: 8% threshold (made up of 2–3 parties)
Base mandates (101)
The 101 base mandates were distributed among the forces that cleared the threshold, in proportion to the votes they received (RA Electoral Code, art. 95, parts 5–6). Each force's ballot count was multiplied by 101 and divided by the total votes of all forces that cleared the threshold; the integer part of the quotient is that force's first share of mandates. The mandates remaining up to 101 were distributed in order of largest remainder, one mandate to each in turn.
- Civil Contract — 48 mandates (40.30% votes)
- Strong Armenia Alliance — 19 mandates (16.47% votes)
- Armenia Alliance — 13 mandates (11.31% votes)
- Prosperous Armenia — 10 mandates (8.40% votes)
- Wings of Unity — 6 mandates (4.86% votes)
- Democracy Law Discipline — 5 mandates (4.23% votes)
National-minority mandates (4)
Four mandates are distributed among national-minority representatives — one each to the four national minorities with the largest permanent population per the last census before the elections (Yezidi, Russian, Assyrian, Kurdish) (RA Electoral Code, art. 95, part 9). The mandates are distributed among the forces that cleared the threshold by a coefficient computed for each mandate: C = M / (Aw + 1), where M is the number of mandates the force won from the main part of its list and Aw is the total it has already been awarded out of the four minority mandates. Mandates are distributed in order of decreasing coefficient, and each one goes to the national minority with the lowest list position not yet awarded a mandate. Steps:
- 1. Yezidi → Civil Contract (M = 48, Aw = 0; C = 48/1 = 48.00)
- 2. Russian → Civil Contract (M = 48, Aw = 1; C = 48/2 = 24.00)
- 3. Assyrian → Strong Armenia Alliance (M = 19, Aw = 0; C = 19/1 = 19.00)
- 4. Kurdish → Civil Contract (M = 48, Aw = 2; C = 48/3 = 16.00)
Second-round additional mandates (+8)
The second-round winner's additional-mandate rule was applied (RA Electoral Code, art. 98, part 6, under the procedure of art. 96). The second-round winner, Civil Contract, had received less than 52% of the total mandates in the first round, so it was granted enough additional mandates to bring its total share to no less than 52%.
- Civil Contract — +8 additional mandates
| Force | Vote % | Base | Min. | Add. | Total | Share | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Civil Contract party | 40.30% | 48 | 3 | +8 | 59 | 52.2% | |
| 3Strong Armenia Alliance alliance | 16.47% | 19 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 17.7% | |
| 17Armenia Alliance alliance | 11.31% | 13 | — | 0 | 13 | 11.5% | |
| 7Prosperous Armenia party | 8.40% | 10 | — | 0 | 10 | 8.8% | |
| 6Wings of Unity party | 4.86% | 6 | — | 0 | 6 | 5.3% | |
| 15Democracy Law Discipline party | 4.23% | 5 | — | 0 | 5 | 4.4% | |
| Total | 113 | 100% | |||||