A
Anonymous
July 18, 2026 ·
Here’s my prediction for the 2026 NA elections. Try yours:
ELECT.AM
2026 NA Elections — My prediction
The front-runner wins ⅔+ of the mandates · first round
Simulator · 19 political forces
Your National Assembly election result
Enter each force’s result — by percentage or vote count — and see what the NA would look like, the possible coalitions, and the second-round outcome.
1
Step
Vote input
Sum of all votes100.0%
1
Reformists Party party
%✗4%
2
Against Everyone Democratic Party party
%✗4%
3
Strong Armenia Alliance all.
%✓8%
4
Meritocratic Party of Armenia party
%✗4%
5
New Power Reformist Party party
%✗4%
6
Wings of Unity party
%✗4%
7
Prosperous Armenia party
%✓4%
8
National Democratic Alliance party
%✗4%
9
Kochari National Rebirth and Awakening party
%✗4%
10
Armenian National Congress party
%✗4%
11
Republic Party party
%✗4%
12
Christian-Democratic Party party
%✗4%
14
Democratic Consolidation party
%✗4%
15
Democracy Law Discipline party
%✗4%
16
Civil Contract party
%✓4%
17
Armenia Alliance all.
%✗8%
18
For the Republic Democracy Defenders Alliance party
%✗4%
19
Bright Armenia party
%✗4%
Inaccuracies count
%
2
step
NA composition from the preliminary mandate allocation
117 seats · cleared threshold: 96.0%
Government78 seats · 66.7%
- 16
CC7866.7%
Opposition39 seats · 33.3%
- 3
SA2117.9% - 7
PA97.7% - 17
AA21.7% - 2
AAE10.9% - 4
MP10.9% - 5
NP10.9% - 6
WU10.9% - 11
Rep10.9% - 15
DLD10.9% - 19
BA10.9%
First-round result
Constitutional majority
The front-runner alone wins a constitutional majority (⅔+ of mandates) — enough even for constitutional amendments.
Government
CC78 seats · 50.1% votes
Above threshold
11 forces
cleared the 4% / 8% / 10% threshold
Total
117
mandates in the NA
3
Final mandate allocation
Base, national-minority and additional seats
Clearing the threshold
The following forces cleared the 4/8/10% threshold of the sum of valid ballots cast and the number of inaccuracies:
- Civil Contract, Prosperous Armenia, Against Everyone Democratic Party, Meritocratic Party of Armenia, New Power Reformist Party, Wings of Unity, Republic Party, Democracy Law Discipline and Bright Armenia parties: 4% threshold
- Strong Armenia Alliance and Armenia Alliance alliances: 8% threshold (made up of 2–3 parties)
Base mandates (101)
The 101 base mandates were distributed among the forces that cleared the threshold, in proportion to the votes they received (RA Electoral Code, art. 95, parts 5–6). Each force's ballot count was multiplied by 101 and divided by the total votes of all forces that cleared the threshold; the integer part of the quotient is that force's first share of mandates. The mandates remaining up to 101 were distributed in order of largest remainder, one mandate to each in turn.
- Civil Contract — 74 mandates (50.12% votes)
- Strong Armenia Alliance — 19 mandates (13.00% votes)
- Prosperous Armenia — 8 mandates (5.53% votes)
National-minority mandates (4)
Four mandates are distributed among national-minority representatives — one each to the four national minorities with the largest permanent population per the last census before the elections (Yezidi, Russian, Assyrian, Kurdish) (RA Electoral Code, art. 95, part 9). The mandates are distributed among the forces that cleared the threshold by a coefficient computed for each mandate: C = M / (Aw + 1), where M is the number of mandates the force won from the main part of its list and Aw is the total it has already been awarded out of the four minority mandates. Mandates are distributed in order of decreasing coefficient, and each one goes to the national minority with the lowest list position not yet awarded a mandate. Steps:
- 1. Yezidi → Civil Contract (M = 74, Aw = 0; C = 74/1 = 74.00)
- 2. Russian → Civil Contract (M = 74, Aw = 1; C = 74/2 = 37.00)
- 3. Assyrian → Civil Contract (M = 74, Aw = 2; C = 74/3 = 24.67)
- 4. Kurdish → Civil Contract (M = 74, Aw = 3; C = 74/4 = 18.50)
2/3 cap · opposition mandates (+12)
The two-thirds cap was applied (RA Electoral Code, art. 95, part 4). In the base allocation the leading force won more than 2/3 of the total mandates but did not receive more than 2/3 of the votes. By law, the other forces that received at least 2% of the votes were granted additional mandates so the leading force's share drops to 2/3. Each force was given one mandate at a time, in order of votes received, until all additional mandates were distributed.
- Strong Armenia Alliance — +2 additional mandates (13.00% votes)
- Armenia Alliance — +2 additional mandates (7.53% votes)
- Prosperous Armenia — +1 additional mandates (5.53% votes)
- Wings of Unity — +1 additional mandates (3.98% votes)
- Meritocratic Party of Armenia — +1 additional mandates (3.24% votes)
- Democracy Law Discipline — +1 additional mandates (2.98% votes)
- Bright Armenia — +1 additional mandates (2.64% votes)
- Republic Party — +1 additional mandates (2.46% votes)
- Against Everyone Democratic Party — +1 additional mandates (2.33% votes)
- New Power Reformist Party — +1 additional mandates (2.21% votes)
| Force | Vote % | Base | Min. | Add. | Total | Share | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Civil Contract party | 50.12% | 74 | 4 | 0 | 78 | 66.7% | |
| 3Strong Armenia Alliance alliance | 13.00% | 19 | — | +2 | 21 | 17.9% | |
| 7Prosperous Armenia party | 5.53% | 8 | — | +1 | 9 | 7.7% | |
| 17Armenia Alliance alliance2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 7.53% | 0 | — | +2 | 2 | 1.7% | |
| 6Wings of Unity party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 3.98% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 4Meritocratic Party of Armenia party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 3.24% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 15Democracy Law Discipline party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 2.98% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 19Bright Armenia party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 2.64% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 11Republic Party party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 2.46% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 2Against Everyone Democratic Party party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 2.33% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| 5New Power Reformist Party party2/3Admitted to the NA by the 2/3-cap opposition rule (art. 95, part 4) | 2.21% | 0 | — | +1 | 1 | 0.9% | |
| Total | 117 | 100% | |||||